Today we are going to talk about something that has frustrated me, and many others, for years..... the BLM does not account for deaths of mustangs in an HMA when they do their population estimates.

They count every possible new foal using a statistical math process to count population growth, often ending up with a higher count than is true, not allowing for deaths or variations of population growth in individual HMAs.

Death is natural and expected within any wild horse herd - how do you not account for something we know happens every single year!?!

Mares die of foaling complications, stallions die in violent fights, foals die from injuries and predators, and wild horses of both genders and all ages die of injuries, colic, other health issues, or just plain old age.

Death is a constant in the wild.

In general, death may not have an overly large impact on herd population under normal circumstance - but what about abnormal circumstances?

Because even in abnormal situation for several herds, at least in WY, the local BLM has refused to acknowledge and failed to adjust for what has been observed and documented, by the general public and dedicated wild horse photographers, to be a major change in a wild horse population.

The kind of change that resulted in herd behavior drastically altering across multiple HMAs, and when not acknowledged and adjusted for by BLM, put at risk the viability of and survival of at least two wild horse herds in WY.

In 2023 a bait trap removal was planned for the wild horses of McCullough Peaks, a mustang herd that has had successful population control using the fertility control of native PzP, using strict guidelines of allowing mares a certain # of foals at intervals, and with a population growth so low that it had not seen any removals in years.

The reason offered for this planned removal was only that the herd exceeded the AML of no more than 140 horses, with the then population at 175 horses, and no proof of range degradation.

There was no need for this removal, not only was there no land damage, many of the wild horses in this herd were over 15yrs, with several of those being over 20yrs old.

The elder of these mustangs had already begun to cross over.... they continued to cross over during the forced removal of 40 wild horses from the Peaks in the winter of 2023/24, and more elders have crossed over since, the population has significantly decreased and would have naturally shrunk to the high AML had they simply been left alone, with the only human intervention of continued correct usage of native PzP.

And remember, that is only the elderly mustangs.... as should be expected and planned for there were younger wild horses that also crossed over, shrinking the population of this herd even more.

And as a stand alone HMA with no other herds to mix with, the shrinking population becomes less genetically viable and healthy, this herd of wild horses has been put at risk due to the failure of BLM to acknowledge the effect of a natural death percentage in a herd population.

In August 2024 a roundup was done in the HMA of White Mountain, 586 wild horses were trapped and removed, despite advocate and public concern that too many horses were being removed and that there was not even the low AML of 205 mustangs left in this HMA.

It was asked over and again that an ariel survey be done at the end of the removal, so that a count of horses remaining wild would be known, and if there were less than the low AML of 205 horses found, that some mustangs then be returned to the HMA.

All advocates were asking for was that at least the low AML be left in this HMA.

But the request was refused.... instead the BLM went on as if nothing was done incorrectly, and that they knew more than the public and advocates about this land, and these horses.

And then the following spring when BLM released its annual population estimates it was in writing that too many horses had been removed during that roundup - there were now only 79 wild horses found in the White Mountain HMA during a flight count over the winter.

So what happened, how did the BLM so grossly misjudge how many wild horses were in the White Mountain HMA?

Because - they refused to acknowledge and adjust for the bitter winter of 2022/23.

The last official count completed by BLM prior to the August 2024 removal had been done in November 2022, before that winter became the harshest winter on record in 30+ years - they did not bother to do a new count and they refused to admit that that winter killed hundreds of wild horses.

BLM continues to ignore the effects of that winter on the wild horse population, from the beginning dismissing any advocate concerns and refusing to do updated counts, continuing on with their statistical assumptions of herd growth in all Wyoming wild horse herds, ignoring that mustang herds across multiple HMAs had suffered severe losses and the population significantly decreased.

The elderly horses would have been the first to walk on in that winter.... but death took so many more mustangs - mares that attempted to keep nursing their young when they did not have enough even for themselves, the young that did not survive after their mothers bodies gave out, and stallions that died near their mares and foals.

An entire generation of foals was also lost that year, most of the mares that did survive that winter had absorbed or aborted their pregnancies in the bitterest months - if they had not they would have either died or had unhealthy foals.

And in some cases the surviving mares were so skeletal and on the brink of death, that they were not able to breed with a stallion in the spring, some of those would not have a new foal until 2025, others were able to mate late in the year 2024, which has resulted in a change to peak foaling season in the HMAs most effected by that winter.

The effects of that winter are many and need to be acknowledged by BLM - they cannot properly do their job of caring for and managing wild horses by ignoring this life altering weather season event.

In 2021 the estimated wild horse population for Arapaho Creek HA - the center of the Red Desert Complex [RDC] - was zero, per BLM records.

This was following the 2020 roundup and removal of wild horses in the RD complex.

I can tell you it was not zero, because that is where my heart is, it is where I spend most of my time, and apparently I know it better than the BLM Wild Horse Specialist, whose literal paid job it is to be out there with the horses.

In 2022 the estimated wild horse population for Arapaho Creek was still listed at zero, but those of us who spent time in Arapaho Creek then knew there to be wild horses moving in and out of the area, with a few small family bands dedicated to staying in the HA year around.

I estimate there were anywhere between 50-100 wild horses that consistently wandered through Arapaho Creek, mostly wandering in and out from the surrounding HMAs, as is historically expected for this area. My personal observations were not more than 20-30 wild horses that consistently stayed in Arapaho Creek year around.

And then the winter of 2022/23 happened.... and everything changed - EVERYTHING!

Arapaho Creek is often the place to be for winter, especially for those horses that spend their summers up on Green or Crooks Mountain, the wind swept grassy hills provided good forage and snows provided moisture - I have personally documented years of horses migrating from Green Mtn down into the desert for winter, and then returning to their high mountain meadows for summers.

Arapaho Creek HA was not a good place to be for this particular winter.

Death came for those that attempted to winter in Arapaho Creek, the snows were not forgiving, and most of those that did survive left Arapaho Creek that winter.

After the winter snows melted the living horses did not return for months.... after that winter it was the absolute emptiest and most desolate Arapaho Creek has felt to me in all of the years I have known it, including through two different roundup and removals.

BLM, however, ignored the deaths and reported an estimated wild horse population in 2023 of 647 mustangs in Arapaho Creek.... after having a zero population for two years running, after a winter that killed hundreds of horses in a way that you could not avoid seeing - driving any given roads or 2-tracks meant finding bodies of mustangs - BLM claims that out of nowhere there are now 647 wild horses in this herd area.

And there were no adjustments to the population growth estimates in the surrounding five Red Desert complex HMAs.

From an outside observer it appears that those submitting the reports are not spending time in the field themselves, otherwise they would have observed what was very obvious and unavoidable, maybe they were so busy with life that it was just easier to plug #s into a computer for their reports... friends attempted to speak with the BLM wild horse specialists for various HMAs and were rebuffed in such a way that I did not see any value in contacting them myself.

In 2024 the estimated wild horse population for Arapaho Creek was increased to 776 mustangs - as someone who spends much of my life in the RDC, and spent additional intense extra time following the harsh winter documenting the after-math of the winter across the RDC, I can absolutely state with no doubt, that this estimate was absurdly and grossly incorrect.

And now, in 2025 the estimated wild horse population for Arapaho Creek has been increased to 931 mustangs - again, this is absurdly and grossly incorrect, the BLM is not accurately counting the wild horses in Arapaho Creek.

What is not being discussed, studied, or even acknowledged by the BLM - and some photographers - is the shift in wild horse behavior following that winter.... and truly the shift began with the 2020 roundup and removal, with several thousand horses being removed and only a handful returned, these horses began wandering miles away from their normal home lands.

The harsh winter of 2022/23 took a toll that left many of these horses confused and uncertain of what to do or where to go.... death took more mares than it did stallions, there were entire family bands taken by the bitter winter - and if there was one survivor of that band that survivor took to searching for miles over miles for a familiar wild horse to keep company with.

Lone surviving stallions took in orphaned yearlings.

In the summer of 2023 extraordinarily large bachelor bands formed, one bachelor band counted 15 wild boys - almost all of them were young 1-3yr old stallions with one or two older stallion to lead them.

As these stallions grow up they are looking for a mare of their own, older surviving stallions are also looking for a mare to mate with, and with the sex ratio so skewed by nature, there is more serious fighting between the boys than has been normal in the past for Red Desert complex horses.

All of these things, and more (a book would have to be written to discuss it all thoroughly), are important to observe, understand, and acknowledge - because without acknowledging the significant loss of life and subsequent changes in behavior and herd dynamics, the BLM cannot make good decisions as to how to correctly manage them and their lands.

It has taken me longer than it probably should have to write this blog.... I actually started it months ago, but it is physically and emotionally painful for me to revisit that winter - I lost many dear wild horses that winter, horses that I considered to be as much a part of my life as human friends - some feel to be a part of me and who I am.

I am sorry it has taken me this long to speak about it and how BLM refuses to acknowledge what happened to the horses in that long bitter season... possibly the ever persistent spark of hope in me maybe thought that there would be some acknowledgement - but it is now over 2yrs since that winter ended and the BLM seems to have forgotten it ever happened at all.

I am finally able to write this because last week I visited the horses of White Mountain.... I spent 2+hours at the corrals with those captured, and then I spent a couple more hours with those that are still wild in their wild lands.

Driving past White Mountain to go to the corrals in Rock Springs the emptiness of the HMA was palpable... sitting in the dirt with one quarter of the wild horses left in this land was indeed sweetness touched by the bitter - it is unreal that this land and its horses were so forcibly destroyed for the sake of a cattle ranchers demands.

There is no plan to release mustangs back into the HMA to repair the damage done by taking too many - the BLM Rock Springs field office and the BLM Cody field office have shown that they will do what they want, when they want, and how they want.

I am writing this because while there seems to be no recourse to repair the damage done to the White Mountain or McCullough Peaks horses today, I feel it is important for us to understand and talk about not only the damage done to them, but that it will not stop with these HMAs.... these are not the only wild horses that BLM refuses to acknowledge the deaths of in that winter - by reporting a ridiculously high and false # of wild horses in Arapaho Creek the BLM is setting a target for removal and another attempted zero out of this HA.

Zeroing out is impossible and should never ever have been attempted for Arapaho Creek HA - that is something I discuss often in my regular FB and IG posts and will continue to discuss.... there is a deep history between this land and the horses that cannot be severed by the whims of a man, it is a necessary piece of surviving and thriving for all of the surrounding HMAs, something that has been proven over and over again by the horses themselves, most recently since the winter of 2022/23.

I don't know what the answer is.... I am not even sure I know all the right questions - actually I am pretty sure I am still figuring out the correct questions to ask to get to the answers that will help wild horses.

What I do know, or feel, is that we have to keep talking.... about the same old things, over and over and over again - even when we are tired of the same old conversation!

We have to speak out every time these things are done incorrectly and unjustly.

None of us have found the magic silver bullet... but if we keep speaking, as new people join us in this fight, as they are learning the history and examining the problem - maybe between us we will find it that answer!

For now I am going to just keep plugging along, one step at a time, one photograph and video at a time, and one blog at a time.

I am thankful for each of you that are here reading this very long, not very fun blog, because it is going to take every single one of us to find a way keep our wild horses wild, in their wild places.